Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 3.722514 4.080835 4.501503 5.045139 5.751710 6.677562 8.064688
2024-12-22 3.197169 3.613478 4.139220 4.887106 5.999337 7.772808 11.472796
2024-12-29 2.992576 3.460399 4.085720 5.050736 6.683942 9.959043 22.277974
2025-01-05 2.742079 3.201598 3.831164 4.839822 6.661677 10.849830 40.329355
2025-01-12 2.543514 2.987629 3.605587 4.619896 6.534755 11.417251 114.360664
2025-01-19 2.410741 2.850045 3.471698 4.519989 6.603599 12.682489 NaN
2025-01-26 2.360243 2.820901 3.491812 4.678507 7.278866 17.658927 NaN
2025-02-02 2.338544 2.829152 3.567488 4.950174 8.398357 34.855499 NaN
2025-02-09 2.273138 2.767297 3.523844 4.985446 8.924622 77.102065 NaN
2025-02-16 2.219361 2.718406 3.495485 5.045060 9.592271 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 2.128989 2.608788 3.356758 4.851541 9.264873 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 2.080654 2.560559 3.317758 4.866421 9.756350 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 2.024987 2.500907 3.259359 4.841279 10.146779 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 1.955438 2.416779 3.153520 4.696471 9.939347 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 1.934551 2.406759 3.175134 4.846513 11.308462 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 1.867943 2.321861 3.058626 4.653031 10.704643 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.803679 2.238690 2.941810 4.450436 10.007050 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.758421 2.184021 2.873286 4.358118 9.903902 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.748592 2.184582 2.902663 4.504513 11.318318 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.750792 2.204129 2.967597 4.754362 14.132943 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.726703 2.180090 2.950159 4.786705 15.399598 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.706344 2.161246 2.941190 4.841317 17.230211 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.662347 2.102301 2.853203 4.663802 15.778379 NaN NaN